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SUNSHINE OVER A GOLDEN CROP

In the face of potentially catastrophic effects on global food production, some have proposed drastic solutions to counteract climate change such as reflecting sunlight away from the Earth. A new study from the Carnegie Institution for Science examining the effects of sunshade geoengineering has concluded that such an approach would be more likely to improve food security than threaten it.

Just as large volcanoes cool the planet by ejecting massive amounts of small particles into the stratosphere, one sunshade geoengineering proposal would involve using high-flying airplanes to release small particles in the stratosphere that would scatter sunlight back into space. Just like the volcanic particles, these would fall back to Earth within a year so they would have to be constantly replenished to stop the planet heating back up. The fear is that such an approach could have unintended consequences for the climate, particularly in terms of its effect of precipitation.

While climate change in recent decades has been found to negatively affect crop yields in many regions, a new study led by Carnegie’s Julia Pongratz is the first to examine the potential effect of geoengineering on food security. To assess the impact of sunshade geoengineering on crop yields, Pongratz’s team, which included Carnegie’s Ken Caldeira and Long Cao, as well as Stanford University’s David Lobell, used two different climate models.

The team first simulated climates with CO2 levels similar to what exists today. A second set doubled CO2 levels to simulate levels that could be reached in several decades if current trends in fossil-fuel burning continued unabated. A third set doubled the levels of CO2, but with a layer of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere deflecting about two percent on incoming sunlight away from Earth. The team then applied the simulated changes to crop models that are commonly used to project future yields.

They found that for both current and doubled CO2 levels, sunshade geoengineering would lead to increased crop yields in most regions. This because while such an approach would reduce temperatures by deflecting sunlight back into space, it wouldn’t affect the levels of CO2.

“In many regions, future climate change is predicted to put crops under temperature stress, reducing yields. This stress is alleviated by geoengineering,” Pongratz said. “At the same time, the beneficial effects that a higher CO2 concentration has on plant productivity remain active.”

While the researchers say sunshade geoengineering would improve crop yields overall, the models also predict that some areas would be negatively affected. They also point out that there are other factors to consider, such as the deployment of such a system leading to political or military conflict, and the fact it ignores the acidification of the ocean, which is also caused by CO2 emissions. It would also affect the electricity-generation capabilities of solar power plants.

“The real world is much more complex than our climate models, so it would be premature to act based on model results like ours,” Caldeira said. “But desperate people do desperate things. Therefore, it is important to understand the consequences of actions that do not strike us as being particularly good ideas.”

“The climate system is not well enough understood to exclude the risks of severe unanticipated climate changes, whether due to our fossil-fuel emissions or due to intentional intervention in the climate system,” says Pongratz. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is therefore likely a safer option than geoengineering to avert risks to global food security.”

Received & published by Henry Sapiecha

GOOD SAMARITAN DIES FROM ELECTROCUTION IN CAR SMASH

A small town in northern NSW is in mourning over a dual tragedy – the electrocution of a young man who went to the aid of a teenager who’d crashed her car into a power pole.

The 19-year-old local woman is believed to have died after her Mazda sedan veered off the Oxley Highway near Gunnedah yesterday.

No one else was in the car and about an hour later a 20-year-old local man came across the accident. But he was electrocuted when he stepped out of his car, Inspector Fred Trench from the Oxley local area command said.

Both victims were from the small town of Mullaley, south-west of Gunnedah, and their bodies were found only metres apart.

”He’s pulled up some time after [the accident], got out of his vehicle and stepped on power lines that were down,” Inspector Trench said. ”We believe they were known to each other.”

The bodies were found by a passing motorist on the way to work some time after 4.30am.

The dead man’s car was next to the crash site with the engine still running, the lights on and a door open.

Bystanders tried performing CPR on the woman but were unable to revive her.

A post-mortem exam will be conducted as part of a coronial investigation.

Meanwhile, three people have died in separate accidents on Victoria’s roads yesterday.

The first fatality was a passenger in a ute which slammed into a power pole in McGregor Road, Pakenham, in south-east Melbourne. Later, a female passenger died when a car rolled at Denver, north-west of Melbourne.

The third death occurred around the same time when a motorcycle and a car collided at Springfield, north of Melbourne. The male motorcyclist died at the scene.

The state’s road toll now stands at 12.

MASSIVE INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION & EXPORT

Ukraine has bounced back from its 2010 drought with a vengeance, exporting a whopping 9.65 million tonnes for their marketing year, which began on July 1.

This is a 42pc year on year increase.

Ukrainian officials say 2011 was the biggest production year in the nation since independence in 1991.

CORN & SOYBEANS ‘How does your garden grow”

In a surprise bearish report, the US Department of Agriculture increased production estimates and harvested acres for both the corn and soybean markets.

On the corn supply side of the ledger, USDA increased corn yields 0.5 bu./acre to 147.2 bu./acre on a total of 84 million harvested acres (an increase of 45,000 acres). USDA increased corn use with South American weather pulling down world corn supplies. Exports were projected 50 million bu. higher due to lower projected supply prospects for Argentina. Ending stocks for corn now sit at 846 million bu., providing more leeway rather than the low end of trade estimates calling for a mere 582 million bu.

Terry Roggensack, analyst for the Hightower Report, noted that USDA lowered Argentina production estimates by just 3 million tons due to dryness over the critical grain fill period. However, he warned that the production drop may be too low, with many in the field projecting production cuts ranging from 12 to 16 million tons.

If those large production losses due come in, next month USDA could lower world production by quite a bit and raise U.S. exports again, again amplifying the tight world stocks situation in corn, Roggensack noted.

USDA also slightly increased soybean yields, up 0.2 bu. to 41.5 bu./acre, bringing total production to 3.056 billion bu. USDA lowered soybean crush 10 million bu. and dropped exports 25 million bu. from last month and down 226 million from the 2010-11 marketing year. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 275 million bu., up 45 million bu. from last month.

Global soybean production was projected at 257 million tons, down 2.2 million mostly due to lower production forecasts for South America. The Argentina soybean crop was projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million due to lower projected area and yields, USDA said.

In the short-term, prices will see downward pressure from the bearish news. However, South American weather will again take the front seat in driving prices forward to gauge the total production losses that could result from the continued dry weather.

LOCK LEWIS HAS THE RIGHT ATTITUDE ABOUT MARINO SHEEP

ESTABLISHED in 1976 by Geoff Lewis, Gnowangerup, Pallinup River stud farm is known for its quality wool Merinos and Poll Merinos.

The flock was established and built up over a number of years, loyal clients followed the stud’s progress and Geoff prided himself on overseeing the production of big framed, soft-woolled sheep.

But after Geoff’s sad passing in early 2009 his son Locky, fuelled by a sense of pride and nostalgia, continued Geoff’s dream of making Pallinup one of the most renowned Merino studs in the Great Southern.

Now 29, Locky is one of the youngest studbreeders in the State but it’s a title which still doesn’t sit comfortably with him.

“My dad was the studbreeder, not me,” Locky laughed.

“But it’s a job I could have never taken on without the support of a number of local studbreeders and the Gnowangerup community.”

Locky said without the help of friends and neighbours, Dick and Collyn Garnett, Willemenup stud, his transition to stud principal would have been made even more difficult.

Despite always knowing he would one day fill his father’s shoes on the farm, Locky said he had to take on a number of large responsibilities in a relatively short period of time.

But with the help of his mother (and farm bookkeeper) Kerry, sister Kelsie and fiancee Kristy Boxall, he managed to find his feet.

These days Locky is responsible for the day-to-day running and future planning of Pallinup stud and with 2200 breeding ewes, 1500 lambs and 100 rams on his 2225 hectare farm, it’s a job he doesn’t take lightly.

“There are so many prospects for young people involved in the livestock industry,” he said.

“WA’s Merino wool industry is in relatively good stead and it’s an exciting time to be involved.

“WA has some fantastic trade opportunities and after so many of our sheep were trucked interstate last year, it’ll be interesting to see how the industry bounces back.”

At Pallinup’s 33rd annual on-property sale last year buyers took full advantage of the 108 two-tooth rams on offer

ALPACA is said to be the fibre of the gods, but Australia’s alpaca fleece market is yet to reach stellar heights.

South Australian Alpaca breeders pic below compliments of country life news

A new concept Premium Alpaca is hoping to change all that, aiming to increase international demand for the luxury fibre.

The aim of a large consortium of growers across Australia is to develop a commercially viable market for alpaca fleece by producing consistent, sizeable consignments of high quality fibre.

Many alpaca owners produce only a few kilograms of fleece each year and usually give it away to home spinners, or it sits in their sheds. But Premium Alpaca is marketing the fleece in bales of about 100 kilograms.

The first Premium Alpaca bales were offered at auction in mid-December at Fremantle in Western Australia.

All three fleece bales sold were from South Australian breeders and realised about 10 per cent more than the highest advertised price at the time.

They were the only fleece bales to sell in the 21-bale auction, going to Australasian company Alpaca Ultimate.

The finest 20.2-micron bale made $20.35 a kilogram, the 22.2M bale $15.40/kg, and the 23.6M bale $12.10/kg.

Premium Alpaca hopes to hold another sale in March.

Its national coordinator Paul Vallely, Crookwell, New South Wales, says it is the first time a concerted effort has been made to build a commercially viable market.

Premium Alpaca is a natural progression from the Ultrafine bale scheme which has produced the world’s finest alpaca bale three times in the past five years.

Alpaca has been used in prestige garments but market analysis during the scheme shows there is a market for “high standard” fibre up to 26M to 28M.

“We found that there was a place for alpaca in the top-shelf range, but the crucial thing from our market analysis was that we have to reduce the variation in fibre diameter within consignments and we need commercial volumes – not 10-20kg,” he said.

“The average alpaca grower has only 10-30 kilograms of fibre, so the industry is highly fragmented with a whole range of colours and fibre diameter – it is useless to market unless it is a uniform consignment of commercial volume.”

LOT FEED INDUSTRY IN WA KEEN TO ABSORB STATES SURPLUS GRAIN

THE State’s excess supply of new season feed wheat and barley is being quickly snapped up by the WA lotfeeding industry.

During the season CBH comprehensively tested grain for falling numbers which CBH grain quality manager Mat Regan said saved hundreds of thousands of tonnes from automatically ending up in the feed stack.

But Wheatbelt farmers still delivered about a million tonnes of feed grade wheat to CBH this season, sparking grower concern about whether domestic or international markets would buy it for a respectable price.

“I thought there would have been far more feed quality grain around this season but falling numbers machines helped to save much of it,” Mr Regan said.

“About half the 1mt of Feed delivered has already been nominated, meaning there is quite a demand for it.”

And for those growers who stored their Feed grade harvest on-farm this year, with a view to sell it privately, the prospects also looked good.

Borden lotfeeder Paul O’Meehan and his feedlot manager Brett Page hadn’t yet bought high volumes of feed for the 2000 head of Angus cross cattle in their yards.

With about 4000 tonnes of wheat harvested from the O’Meehan’s own property stored on-farm, there hadn’t been the need to supplement stocks.

But with roughly 10,000t of feed needed to go through the troughs by the time their 2000 head finished 60 days in the feedlot, Mr Page wasn’t worried about finding good quality feed grain.

“By all accounts there is a fair bit of it around,” he said.

“We haven’t received as many direct phone calls as I thought we might have but I’m not worried about finding supplies once ours start to go down.”

Mr Page said heavy grain with low screenings was optimal for the feedlot and higher protein grain with higher moisture specifications than CBH’s receival standards was also advantageous.

Grainfed beef turned off from the enterprise were predominantly fed on a diet of tempered wheat, barley, lupins, oaten hay, straw and silage depending on the season.

The O’Meehan’s annual feed grain purchases can be upward of 6000t of barley and wheat.

SLASHING RED TAPE FOR EXPORTS BY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

The Australian Government is boosting regional economies through $30 million in support and a further $30 million per annum in reduced red tape for agricultural export industries.

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Senator Joe Ludwig, said the changes to the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS) export certification services were made under the Export Certification Reform Package to deliver better and more flexible arrangements for exporters.

“In October 2011, improvements in the meat inspection program introduced flexibility and efficiency through the implementation of AQIS Authorised Officers,” Minister Ludwig said.

“Changes to the meat program will reduce the regulatory cost of export certification by $27 million per annum and are being supported by $25.8 million in transitional assistance.

“On 1 January 2012, new arrangements commenced for exports of grain, fish and egg products.

“The Government will provide $1.5 million to support efficiencies in the fish and eggs program and $2.5 million to support the changes to the grain export program.”

Minister Ludwig said the changes were developed in close partnership with export groups to ensure a smooth transition to the new arrangements.

“None of the reforms that have been agreed and implemented could be delivered without an effective working partnership with exporters,” Minister Ludwig said.

“Australia’s agriculture industries support 300,000 jobs in regional communities.”

“I’m calling on the Opposition to support these important reforms, including underpinning regulations, and show their commitment to jobs in regional Australia rather than playing politics with regional communities.

“Export reforms will improve confidence in Australia’s export certification systems and improve the competitiveness of Australia’s $32 billion agricultural export industries.”

Highlights of the new service delivery arrangements follow. A full report on each project is available at www.daff.gov.au/ecri