SUNSHINE OVER A GOLDEN CROP

In the face of potentially catastrophic effects on global food production, some have proposed drastic solutions to counteract climate change such as reflecting sunlight away from the Earth. A new study from the Carnegie Institution for Science examining the effects of sunshade geoengineering has concluded that such an approach would be more likely to improve food security than threaten it.

Just as large volcanoes cool the planet by ejecting massive amounts of small particles into the stratosphere, one sunshade geoengineering proposal would involve using high-flying airplanes to release small particles in the stratosphere that would scatter sunlight back into space. Just like the volcanic particles, these would fall back to Earth within a year so they would have to be constantly replenished to stop the planet heating back up. The fear is that such an approach could have unintended consequences for the climate, particularly in terms of its effect of precipitation.

While climate change in recent decades has been found to negatively affect crop yields in many regions, a new study led by Carnegie’s Julia Pongratz is the first to examine the potential effect of geoengineering on food security. To assess the impact of sunshade geoengineering on crop yields, Pongratz’s team, which included Carnegie’s Ken Caldeira and Long Cao, as well as Stanford University’s David Lobell, used two different climate models.

The team first simulated climates with CO2 levels similar to what exists today. A second set doubled CO2 levels to simulate levels that could be reached in several decades if current trends in fossil-fuel burning continued unabated. A third set doubled the levels of CO2, but with a layer of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere deflecting about two percent on incoming sunlight away from Earth. The team then applied the simulated changes to crop models that are commonly used to project future yields.

They found that for both current and doubled CO2 levels, sunshade geoengineering would lead to increased crop yields in most regions. This because while such an approach would reduce temperatures by deflecting sunlight back into space, it wouldn’t affect the levels of CO2.

“In many regions, future climate change is predicted to put crops under temperature stress, reducing yields. This stress is alleviated by geoengineering,” Pongratz said. “At the same time, the beneficial effects that a higher CO2 concentration has on plant productivity remain active.”

While the researchers say sunshade geoengineering would improve crop yields overall, the models also predict that some areas would be negatively affected. They also point out that there are other factors to consider, such as the deployment of such a system leading to political or military conflict, and the fact it ignores the acidification of the ocean, which is also caused by CO2 emissions. It would also affect the electricity-generation capabilities of solar power plants.

“The real world is much more complex than our climate models, so it would be premature to act based on model results like ours,” Caldeira said. “But desperate people do desperate things. Therefore, it is important to understand the consequences of actions that do not strike us as being particularly good ideas.”

“The climate system is not well enough understood to exclude the risks of severe unanticipated climate changes, whether due to our fossil-fuel emissions or due to intentional intervention in the climate system,” says Pongratz. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is therefore likely a safer option than geoengineering to avert risks to global food security.”

MASSIVE INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION & EXPORT

Ukraine has bounced back from its 2010 drought with a vengeance, exporting a whopping 9.65 million tonnes for their marketing year, which began on July 1.

This is a 42pc year on year increase.

Ukrainian officials say 2011 was the biggest production year in the nation since independence in 1991.

CORN & SOYBEANS ‘How does your garden grow”

In a surprise bearish report, the US Department of Agriculture increased production estimates and harvested acres for both the corn and soybean markets.

On the corn supply side of the ledger, USDA increased corn yields 0.5 bu./acre to 147.2 bu./acre on a total of 84 million harvested acres (an increase of 45,000 acres). USDA increased corn use with South American weather pulling down world corn supplies. Exports were projected 50 million bu. higher due to lower projected supply prospects for Argentina. Ending stocks for corn now sit at 846 million bu., providing more leeway rather than the low end of trade estimates calling for a mere 582 million bu.

Terry Roggensack, analyst for the Hightower Report, noted that USDA lowered Argentina production estimates by just 3 million tons due to dryness over the critical grain fill period. However, he warned that the production drop may be too low, with many in the field projecting production cuts ranging from 12 to 16 million tons.

If those large production losses due come in, next month USDA could lower world production by quite a bit and raise U.S. exports again, again amplifying the tight world stocks situation in corn, Roggensack noted.

USDA also slightly increased soybean yields, up 0.2 bu. to 41.5 bu./acre, bringing total production to 3.056 billion bu. USDA lowered soybean crush 10 million bu. and dropped exports 25 million bu. from last month and down 226 million from the 2010-11 marketing year. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 275 million bu., up 45 million bu. from last month.

Global soybean production was projected at 257 million tons, down 2.2 million mostly due to lower production forecasts for South America. The Argentina soybean crop was projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million due to lower projected area and yields, USDA said.

In the short-term, prices will see downward pressure from the bearish news. However, South American weather will again take the front seat in driving prices forward to gauge the total production losses that could result from the continued dry weather.

LOT FEED INDUSTRY IN WA KEEN TO ABSORB STATES SURPLUS GRAIN

THE State’s excess supply of new season feed wheat and barley is being quickly snapped up by the WA lotfeeding industry.

During the season CBH comprehensively tested grain for falling numbers which CBH grain quality manager Mat Regan said saved hundreds of thousands of tonnes from automatically ending up in the feed stack.

But Wheatbelt farmers still delivered about a million tonnes of feed grade wheat to CBH this season, sparking grower concern about whether domestic or international markets would buy it for a respectable price.

“I thought there would have been far more feed quality grain around this season but falling numbers machines helped to save much of it,” Mr Regan said.

“About half the 1mt of Feed delivered has already been nominated, meaning there is quite a demand for it.”

And for those growers who stored their Feed grade harvest on-farm this year, with a view to sell it privately, the prospects also looked good.

Borden lotfeeder Paul O’Meehan and his feedlot manager Brett Page hadn’t yet bought high volumes of feed for the 2000 head of Angus cross cattle in their yards.

With about 4000 tonnes of wheat harvested from the O’Meehan’s own property stored on-farm, there hadn’t been the need to supplement stocks.

But with roughly 10,000t of feed needed to go through the troughs by the time their 2000 head finished 60 days in the feedlot, Mr Page wasn’t worried about finding good quality feed grain.

“By all accounts there is a fair bit of it around,” he said.

“We haven’t received as many direct phone calls as I thought we might have but I’m not worried about finding supplies once ours start to go down.”

Mr Page said heavy grain with low screenings was optimal for the feedlot and higher protein grain with higher moisture specifications than CBH’s receival standards was also advantageous.

Grainfed beef turned off from the enterprise were predominantly fed on a diet of tempered wheat, barley, lupins, oaten hay, straw and silage depending on the season.

The O’Meehan’s annual feed grain purchases can be upward of 6000t of barley and wheat.

SO WHAT DO WE DO WITH THE FARM WHEN WE RETIRE?

BUYING the family farm has become just about impossible for young farmers and fewer people are taking over when their parents hit retirement age.

However, there are some young farmers, like Michael Nichols, who are still keen to pursue the farming lifestyle.

The 28-year-old farmer is managing his parents’ 600-hectare farm at Sisters Creek, Redbanks Farm, Tasmania.

“Working in a company structure is a lot easier than taking ownership of the land,” he said.

“It is big dollars to buy the land and most young people can’t go and ask the bank for a loan of several million dollars.”

Mr Nichols said there had been no expectation from his parents for him to take over the family farm, but it was something he’d always wanted to do – the farming lifestyle had been instilled in his blood from all his years working and living on the land.

He said there were many farmers in the region who were reaching retirement age and would have to sell the family farm because their children did not want to take over.

“The mines have pulled a lot of people away,” he said.

“It’s high money for less work whereas farming is a lot of work and late nights and you are not guaranteed a profit at the end of the year,” he said.

However, Mr Nichols also has friends in their early 30s who are running their parents’ farm or are starting to buy.

He hopes agriculture will be sustainable into the future but says there has to be a guaranteed profit at the end of the day.

“It will be interesting to see how the water scheme in the Midlands will kick off,” he said.

“Maybe if they’ve got that security it will boost farmers’ confidence.

“There are also people who have grown up on a farm and done ag science at uni.

“They aren’t interested in taking over the farm, but we do need people who are farm-minded to work as agronomists.”

Mr Nichols believes the government can do a lot to assist farmers, such as stopping cheap vegetable imports and offering subsidies like they do in Europe.

He doesn’t think he will be able to buy the land but his feet are firmly planted in the rich, red dirt on the property and he hopes to continue in his current role.

The farming lifestyle has its pros and cons.

The hours are long, the work is hard and the rewards are not guaranteed but Mr Nichols loves the challenge.

He has a wife, Lauren, and three-year old son, Jack, and said he could choose when he started work so he could spend time with his family.

“I can have part of the day off, but I have to make it up that night,” he said.

“It can be flexible, which is good while my son is young.”

He said the nature of farming had changed and farmers now needed to be multi-skilled as they would be moving irrigators one day and in the office the next working out a budget or talking to the accountant.

“People used to think you could always fall back on the family farm. But now you need a whole range of skills to be a farmer,” he said.

Mr Nichols said his father had stepped back and allowed him to make changes on the farm.

“When I finished school I worked on a farm in the UK for two years, which is the best way to learn. You can’t be stuck in a rut and do things the same way year after year,” he said.

“It’s not hard to make things better, you’ve just got to be willing to change.”

One of the farm’s strengths is its diversity which means it is not dependent on just cropping.

“You’ve got to be diverse,” Mr Nichols said.

“If you are just a crop farmer and there is a bad year, it will be a really bad year.”

Cropping is the main focus of the farm, but it also has chickens, beef cattle, plantation trees, Hill Farm preserves and Mr Nichols has a combine harvester for contract work.

THE host of ABC television’s Gardening Australia program has been told his services will no longer be required next year.

Stephen Ryan, who fronted the show for three years, says the program’s executive producer, Tim Mitchell, visited him at his home to impart the bad news.

He said before leaving Mr Mitchell also handed him a prepared ABC press release to sign – ”if I approved of the contents and in my own time” – stating that he was ”retiring” from the program to spend more time at his Mount Macedon nursery which needed his attention.

But nothing could be further from the truth, according to Mr Ryan, who took over from Peter Cundall in November 2008. He said he believed he had been sacked, given his contract was not being renewed, and he definitely was not retiring.

”Tim was very uncomfortable and said it was one of the worst things he’d had to do. The conversation lasted a couple of minutes and then he left. I thought he was coming to talk about the show and plans for next year so it was a bolt out of the blue and very upsettling.

”And when I was shown the press release stating that I was retiring [rather than my contract not being renewed] I refused to sign it. That’s covering up and I’ve always been upfront and honest with people.

”I know television is one of those places where no one’s completely secure but it [being sacked] wasn’t in my consciousness at all when Tim visited. He tried to be as gentle as possible but didn’t dilly-dally around.”

Mr Ryan was also told that since his contract was not being renewed to front the gardening program, he could no longer contribute articles to the Gardening Australia magazine. ”They’ve cut me completely loose and obviously don’t want me being around any more.”

He said he had enjoyed working on the show and had not received any negative feedback about his performance as host. But Mr Ryan praised the ABC for choosing, three years ago, an unknown entity such as himself to replace the popular Peter Cundall.

”There’s praise in many respects. I have a lot of respect for the program and I’ve learnt a lot of skills and everyone was wonderful to work with. One assumes management has a plan and want to shake up the program, so have a replacement in mind, but it’s not easy finding a known face and there aren’t many with horticultural knowhow who can stand & perform in front of a camera.”

Tim Mitchell was unavailable for comment.

RECENT TURF RESEARCH

has clearly shown the value of turfgrass in retaining sediment on slopes and reducing nutrient movement into waterways. As part of a project, it was found that sod was 100 times more effective in keeping soil in place during heavy rainfall than exposed soil. The project monitored soil losses during an eight week period, in January and February 2011 which encompassed a time of extensive flooding in south east Queensland

Two gardening events coming up in Queensland

1…If you’re a lifestyle horticultural professional, then the NGIQ Spring Green Expo on 2-3 August 2011 is for you. Hosted by the Nursery Gardens Institute of Queensland, this expo is arguably the biggest combined nursery, landscape, turf and cut flower trade event in Queensland. The ‘trade only’ event will be held at the Gold Coast Convention Centre. For more information, visit NGIQ.

2…One of Queensland’s largest and most celebrated gardening events, the annual Queensland Garden Expo is being held in Nambour from 8–10 July 2011. This three day gardening extravaganza is the perfect scene for green fingers and home gardeners to gain first hand information, innovation and inspiration.